Tropical Storm Grace has formed and been confirmed by the NHC that it has TS force winds! She is meant to strengthen in the next 2-3 days and then weaken due to the wind shear.. But, wind shear is lessening, why is the NHC still thinking there will be more than 30 knot shear battering her?
Here is the future track of grace, by the NHC :
Intensity by Tuesday should be near a hurricane strength for Grace, 60 mph winds and a pressure of near 995mb according to some models. Talking of models, GFS now makes Grace near hurricane strength or a hurricane strength cyclone and weaken it to a minimal TD when nearing the islands.
They might be watching the SAL filling up, but who knows?
They might be watching the SAL filling up, but who knows?
Notice the shape of Grace and the shape of the wave behind her? The wave behind should be 92L within the next 24-48 hours. It could be Henri very very soon, models hint some development of it! Shear where Grace is, is less than 10 knots, which is very very good for tropical storms to gain strength quickly. In some places there is no shear at all!
Grace has a very big chance of survival, if she strengthens a lot (50-70mph winds). If she becomes a hurricane, then it will be very easy for her to survive. Here are some probabilities where she can strengthen a lot, it just looks like anywhere....
Current satellite of Grace shows very deep convection and circulation around the centre. You can also see the next BIG tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa.
There can be anything, hurricane, major hurricane too... Who knows? Weather is doing her thing!
Many intensity guidances, including the NHC strengthens Grace near a hurricane strength or hurricane strength. We really don't know why they think she is going to weaken, everything for now is perfect for strengthening, even the SST
Next blog in about 6 hours. Stay tuned for the latest forecast and track!
Big thanks for TropicalTidBits for most of this info and also, spaghettimodels.com
Big thanks for TropicalTidBits for most of this info and also, spaghettimodels.com